Factors Affecting the Intention to Prepare for Flash Floods in the Philippines

Research by: Lorraine Anne Cielo A. Pascual, Ardvin Kester S. Ong, Chad Michael Briggs, John Francis T. Diaz, & Josephine D. German

Executive Summary

The Philippines, recognized as one of the world’s most disaster-prone countries, faces a constant and severe threat from flash floods due to its geographical location, resulting in significant damage to property, infrastructure, and tragic loss of life. Despite this acute vulnerability, a critical gap existed in understanding the psychological drivers of preparedness among Filipinos. This study addressed this gap by developing an integrated model combining the Extended Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) and the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) to identify the determinants influencing the intention to prepare for flash floods. Data was gathered through an online questionnaire from 401 individuals who had direct experience with flash floods and was analyzed using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM).

The analysis yielded a clear and distinct profile of significant drivers, revealing that preparedness intention is primarily fueled by a combination of cognitive, emotional, and social factors. Specifically, the key predictors are an individual’s knowledge of flash floods, the perceived severity of the threat to life and livelihood, and the feeling of personal and familial vulnerability. Furthermore, direct and often traumatic past experiences with destructive floods, such as homes being damaged or destroyed, significantly heightened the intention to prepare. Social influence, encapsulated in the subjective norm, also proved to be a powerful motivator, meaning that the perceived expectations of family and friends strongly encourage preparatory actions. Interestingly, and contrary to the traditional TPB model, the study found that an individual’s personal attitude toward preparation and their perceived behavioral control—the belief in their ability to execute preparatory measures—did not significantly influence their intentions. This suggests that in the face of such an overwhelming and uncontrollable natural hazard, the driving forces are the stark recognition of the danger and social pressure, rather than personal feelings or a sense of self-efficiency.

Based on these empirical findings, the study innovatively developed a targeted mitigation plan and a risk matrix tailored for the Philippine context. These outputs offer policymakers and government agencies significant, actionable insights to design more effective communication campaigns and intervention programs. The results underscore the need for initiatives that emphasize the severe consequences of flash floods, leverage social networks, and incorporate narratives of past experiences to motivate the public. Ultimately, this research provides a foundational model for enhancing disaster resilience in the Philippines, and its integrated framework can be utilized by future researchers to assess preparedness for other natural hazards.

To cite this article: Pascual, L. A. C. A., Ong, A. K. S., Briggs, C. M., Diaz, J. F. T., & German, J. D. (2024). Factors affecting the intention to prepare for flash floods in the Philippines. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 112, 104794. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104794.

To access the article: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2024.104794

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